How to identify value in your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the Best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain the concept of odds percentages,

### specifically how to identify value in the odds on offer. In this article I will explain:

- How to identify value in the odds; and
- How to allocate your stake money given the odds on offer.

How to identify value in the odds

The concept of odds baskets is something which I have learned from reading the FTSE website. It uncovers the idea that a price offered by one bookmaker may be different to the price offered by another, even if both bookmakers are offering the same product. slot138 daftar For example, Accumulators may be 2.0, 2.1, 2.2, 3.0 or 3.1 – but if you see that the first number on the Accumulator is 12.1, then the second number must be 12.0 or nothing else to you. The concept can be explained by an example.

### Bookmaker 1 has a 6/4 accumulator offering the following odds:

140-160come from 4 possible selections

11-20job (0-0)come from 4 possible selections

7-19job (0-0) come from 3 possible selections

3-16get 2 selections

1-12get 1 selection

0-12get 0 selections

3-9get 3 selections

2-9get 2 selections

1-5get 1 selection

0-9get 0 selections

Note that the odds on offer are From 6 Unmatched Odds + 100 Break Even Points per Million. Enquiring, for example, that you had 3 selections of 4 at 3-1, you are now looking at an 8% profit on your one selection, the 7/ 4 accumulator. The break even points are 100-160, 80% of your stake money times 4 selections times 100 points = 80% profit.

### Identifying Value in the Odds

Now that you know what the odds are, you need to be able to identify value in the odds. In the example above with odds of 4/ 3, you need to identify if the selection of 12 in the accumulator is really worth the extra stake. If you think that the selection of 12 is not a good one, you need toIONLY reduce your stake to 2/ 3rds of your stake money, in other words 2/3rds of 100 points, in order to make an operating profit of 3% on your one selection.

### Stake plan

A Lottery syndicate improve their profitability in the long term when they put in place a profitable Stake Plan that fits the groups’ needs, and generate a common profit net of payments into the accounts. The plan may be as simple as having a set group percentage of profit (e.g. 50% for a Readers group) or as complicated as an income scenario plan. Income scenario plans simply use the Membership Income Group Method to generate a number of combinations that, in theory, should be profitable for each selection.

The idea is to work out the expected income each week and the plan is to vary the number of combinations and the spreads between them, depending on group performance. This may be done by using the Membership Income Group Method to identify groups of numbers that, if matched, would generate an expected income group. The idea is then to link the different possibilities together to form groups with the appropriate expectation.

In the UK National Lottery, the income scenario approach is used. Members are each given a list of numbers that they would like to play. The difference between UK lottery play and other national lotteries is that members choose their own numbers. In the sickness funds if you have to choose, you have more options.

You will often be asked to join a syndicate. The quicker you join one, the quicker you can be in line for your share. If you are lucky enough to be given a lucky number then you may be advised to buy as many tickets as you can. You have therefore nothing to lose, but a lot more to gain by joining one. You will soon discover that a syndicate approach is one of the best ways to play the UK National Lottery. You will be a member of a group of individuals who share your joy of playing the national lottery.

You will be getting an equal share of the winnings in the syndicate – whereas if you participate on your own in the usual way, you will not have any of the winnings. Why not? Because you are a member of a syndicate, you have a lot more chances of sharing money from the lottery.